Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANNY-15
in Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DANNY-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (24 Aug 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Dominica)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 120 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 176 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to 390000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 18 Aug 2015 15:00 157 No people No people
Green 2 18 Aug 2015 21:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 19 Aug 2015 03:00 167 No people No people
Green 4 19 Aug 2015 09:00 167 No people No people
Green 5 19 Aug 2015 15:00 148 No people No people Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
Green 6 19 Aug 2015 21:00 139 No people No people Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
Green 7 20 Aug 2015 03:00 130 No people No people Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
Green 8 20 Aug 2015 09:00 120 No people No people Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
Orange 9 20 Aug 2015 15:00 120 No people 400 thousand Antigua and Barbuda, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Saint Kitts and Nevis

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 18 Aug 2015 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 10.6, -36.5
GREEN
2 18 Aug 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 10.9, -37.5
GREEN
3 19 Aug 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11.2, -38.8
GREEN
4 19 Aug 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11.3, -40.2
GREEN
5 19 Aug 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11.2, -41.1
GREEN
6 19 Aug 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 11.5, -42
GREEN
7 20 Aug 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12.1, -42.7
GREEN
8 20 Aug 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12.2, -43.7
GREEN
9 20 Aug 2015 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 12.5, -44.8
GREEN
9 21 Aug 2015 00:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 13.1, -46
GREEN
9 21 Aug 2015 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 14, -47.6
GREEN
9 22 Aug 2015 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 14.7, -49.4
GREEN
9 22 Aug 2015 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.2, -51.5
GREEN
9 23 Aug 2015 12:00 Category 1 120 2300 people 520000 people 16, -56.4 Antigua and Barbuda
ORANGE
9 24 Aug 2015 12:00 Category 1 120 420000 people 4.7 million people 16.9, -61.7 Puerto Rico
GREEN
9 25 Aug 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18, -66.6 Puerto Rico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Antigua & Barbuda 19000 people
St. Kitts & Nevis <1000 people
Virgin Is. 15000 people
Puerto Rico 330000 people

Provinces

Region Province Country
Antigua & Barbuda Antigua and Barbuda
St. Kitts & Nevis Saint Kitts and Nevis
Virgin Is. Virgin Islands, U.S.
Guayama Puerto Rico
Ponce Puerto Rico
Mayag?ez Puerto Rico

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Newcastle St. Kitts and Nevis City <1000 people
Charlestown St. Kitts and Nevis City 1500 people
Ponce Ponce Puerto Rico City 160000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Newcastle NEV 8 Civ. Paved No 4000
Alexander Hamilton STX 19 Civ. Paved Yes 7600
Patillas 3 0
Santa Isabel 8 0
Fort Allen 6 0
Mercedita PSE 9 Civ. Paved Yes 6900

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Charlestown KNNEV Saint Kitts and Nevis
Hovic VIHOC Virgin Islands
Limetree Bay VILIB Virgin Islands
Frederiksted VIFRD Virgin Islands
Arroyo Puerto Rico
Las Mareas Puerto Rico
Las Mareas (Guayama) PRLAM Puerto Rico
Ponce PRPSE Puerto Rico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Baie-Mahault, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 24 Aug 2015 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 24 Aug 2015 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Aug 2015 13:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.2
24 Aug 2015 13:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 14:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 13:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 14:00 Bas Vent Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 13:00 Saint-Louis Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 13:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 12:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 14:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 14:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 14:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 12:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
24 Aug 2015 15:00 La Pointe-Noire Guadeloupe  0.1
24 Aug 2015 15:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1